S&P 500 Rolling Returns by Holding Period

See how the length of time you hold an investment changed the range of outcomes. For every starting year since 1928, this shows what the following 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 years historically returned. Short holding periods produced a very wide spread of results; longer ones narrowed it considerably. Figures come from the Damodaran dataset at NYU Stern.

Each rolling return is the geometric mean (CAGR) of that year's return and the N−1 years that followed it. A cell shows — when the dataset doesn't yet have enough future years to complete that window.

From To

N-year return = geometric mean (CAGR) of that year's return and the next (N−1) years: [(1+r_Y) × (1+r_Y+1) × ... × (1+r_Y+N-1)]^1/N − 1. Sorted newest year first. Returns are nominal total returns (dividends reinvested). Data: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern School of Business — "Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills," updated January 2026. This is the S&P 500 index itself, not the SPY ETF (which only exists since 1993 and differs slightly due to fees/tracking).